5G Enables the Global Economy to Survive the Pandemic
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in the early months of 2020, surveys predicted that the 5G roll-out would be severely impacted by investment slowdowns, severe economic downturns, plummeting consumer confidence and supply chain disruptions. In reality, although there were indeed a number of short-term impacts, the global healthcare crisis actually emphasised the importance of digital infrastructure. Businesses around the world have rapidly adapted to the constraints imposed by COVID-19, implementing virtual modes of operation, and citizens have found new ways of interacting and engaging socially.
COVID-19 has actually underscored the economic and environmental importance of 5G, a critical enabler of digital infrastructure. By the end of 2020, the industry was optimistic about an eventual, full recovery for 5G, with IHS Markit, a London-based analyst, revising their 2019 investment forecast upwards. The new forecast predicts a 10.8% net increase in 5G investments for the period 2020-35, compared with the pre-COVID view, reflecting the value in a post-pandemic world of the emerging 5G use cases.
5G Helping the World adapt to COVID-19
In the period since its emergence, COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on the world, with the World Health Organisation, (WHO), reporting 271,963,258 worldwide cases as of 17 December 2021 and 5,331,019 deaths. Although vaccines have emerged during 2021 to slow the spread of the disease and reduce its impact, there have been multiple twists and turns along the road, with successive waves still impacting many countries.
During this time, almost every aspect of human activity, including work, leisure, health, education, and retail have been profoundly impacted by the virus. These social and economic disruptions have had a significant impact on the global dependence on digital communications and, in particular, the rollout of 5G.
In 2020, consumer use of fixed broadband connectivity increased, on average, by two and a half hours per day and of mobile by one hour. In its recent 5G Outlook Series report , the World Economic Forum highlighted a range of activities driving this increased usage, including a 490% increase in telemedicine consultations, a 75% increase in online gaming and a 74% increase in online retail transactions. In their June 2020 Mobility Report, Ericsson, a Swedish multinational networking and telecommunications company reported that 60% of white-collar workers increased their use of video calls.
The Global Pandemic is Shaping Five Connectivity Trends
COVID-19 has highlighted the growing importance of connectivity for the global economy and environment, with five key trends emerging.
A massive, global shift to remote working
With social distancing measures placing severe restrictions on use of office space, millions of workers have been unable to access their normal workplaces during the pandemic and a 2020 survey by Global Workplace Analytics, a research-based consulting firm, showed that as much as 88% of the global workforce were working from home during 2020 – up from 31% pre-pandemic. This trend is reflected in an increased dependency on connectivity, with AT&T, in the USA reporting a 22% increase in core network traffic and, in Asia, Korea Telecom reporting a tripling of traffic since the launch of 5G, driven mainly by video traffic.
Replacement of classroom learning with remote schooling
COVID-19 has had a profound impact on pupils, teachers, and schools, with estimates of 1.2 billion children in 186 countries being shut out of the classroom during the lockdowns of 2020. Education has therefore had to adapt dramatically, resulting in the rise of e-learning, with teaching delivered remotely, using digital platforms. Whilst research indicates that online learning increase retention of information and takes less time, there is a risk of an education gap appearing, across countries and between income brackets, based on access to digital technology. Government education policies need to address this growing issue to ensure that the pandemic does not leave a legacy of a digital divide. Early signs are encouraging, with schools globally allocating 15.9% of budget to Educational Technology in 2020, up from 3.9% in 2018.
Substitution of in-person gatherings for online socialisation
The physical distancing measures introduced by many governments have fundamentally impacted our daily lives, in some cases, threatening our mental health and wellbeing. With more and more people working from home, the internet increasingly offers a means of staying connected to friends, social lives and everyday hobbies and activities.
Social media use has accelerated through the pandemic and innovative ways of socialising are emerging, such as group video chats, online dinner parties, quizzes, book club meetings, virtual exercise classes and online gaming, where traffic is up by 75% compared with pre-COVID levels.
Shifts in commerce and retail in response to sudden changes in consumer behaviour
COVID-19 imposed physical restrictions have impacted heavily on the retail sector, with shopping habits dramatically accelerating the shift from traditional stores and shopping malls to online and e-commerce channels. Kantar, a media research company, predicts that e-commerce will account for two-thirds of retail sales growth over the period 2020 -25 with online outlets such as Amazon, Wayfair and Etsy benefiting at the expense of traditional establishments.
Although existing mobile broadband services can adequately support many aspects of e-commerce, 5G’s enhanced capabilities promises to further enhance the consumer experience and bring productivity gains to the on-line retailer.
The global public-health crisis response
Even before the pandemic, healthcare was one of the largest industries, with spending ranging between 10% and 14% across developed countries. Wireless communication technology was already well embedded in healthcare, but COVID-19 is providing both the opportunity and the imperative for further developments. Physical distancing requirements have placed severe limitations on both hospital and doctors’ surgery visits, driving significant growth in telemedicine, where telephone or video consultations have replaced in-person visits. In a March 2020 report, Forrester research were forecasting that virtual healthcare interactions would exceed one billion by the end of the year and Frost and Sullivan estimated that tele-health visits with doctors grew by 50% during the month of March 2020.
The Pandemic and 5G
The above trends driven by the global pandemic have highlighted the growing global dependence on mobile technology and accelerated the development of a multitude of use cases. While it is true that many of these use cases can currently be supported by existing 4G/LTE networks, their rapid growth is emphasising the need for 5G’s advanced capabilities.
The global demand for bandwidth was already putting current generation networks under pressure and was a key driver of 5G development. COVID-19 has further accelerated this demand and the availability of 5G, with its increased and more efficient use of spectrum, is more crucial than ever.
Figure 1 illustrates how 5G’s functional capabilities are enabling a wide range of use cases, including those discussed above. Enhanced mobile broadband and low latency communications support a wide range of applications which are both bandwidth hungry and time sensitive, spanning tele-health, industrial and educational use cases. Massive Machine Type Communications will support the explosive growth in connected devices upon which these use cases will depend and, increasingly, low power-networking techniques will contribute to the development of sustainable applications.
Figure 1: The pandemic is accelerating the need for 5G’s capabilities
Source: World Economic Forum: 5G Outlook Series
The Pandemic has Strengthened the Case for 5G
Despite initial fears for the 5G roll-out, the trends that have emerged during the global pandemic have strengthened the case for investing in digital infrastructure, and 5G in particular. Emerging use cases have illustrated the economic benefits of this new technology, estimated before the pandemic at up to $2.2 trillion in the 15-year period to 2035.
It is generally recognised that the world will not return to its pre-COVID state; home working is here to stay for a substantial proportion of the workforce and advances in areas such as telemedicine and industrial automation will continue to support flexible working practices, enabling industry to function in an ongoing, uncertain environment.
Moving forward, governments and regulators must continue to support the roll-out of 5G to ensure that the world eventually emerges from the pandemic in a stronger position. The trends that have emerged during this global health crisis have underscored the importance of the digital evolution, enabled by 5G, in tackling current and future challenges, including climate change.
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Itamar Kahalani
Itamar Kahalani is Xilinx Product Line Manager at Avnet Israel....
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