January 2025 Global Freight Update
By
Christian Goehring
|
April 1, 2025
|
Provided By
Avnet
Global Air Market Update
Global air cargo growth showed signs of softening in December 2024, with tonnages increasing by +6% YoY and average rates up by +7%, half the growth seen in September.
- Early January 2025 recorded only +2% YoY growth in tonnages, affected by seasonality and severe weather. Spot rates began the year +22% higher YoY, with a notable rise in Asia-Pacific (+23%) and Middle East & South Asia (+59%), while contract rates saw a modest increase of +6%.
- Tonnages from Asia Pacific remained strong, with Q4 growth at +6% from Q3 and +11% YoY from Q4 2023, though global demand growth showed signs of slowing in the final quarter.
- Transatlantic westbound rates experienced a significant surge, with December spot rates from Europe to North America up +50% YoY, peaking at $3.88 per kilo.
- Frankfurt’s outbound rates surged 19.8% week-over-week, translating to a 40.8% year-over-year increase. Rates from Hong Kong fell by 11.1% week-over-week, but are still up 14% compared to last year.
- Overall, 2024 saw a global air cargo tonnage increases, driven by growth in Asia Pacific and MESA regions.
Global Ocean Market Update
With Lunar New Year around the corner, ocean carriers have implemented a General Rate Increase (GRI) effective January 1, along with mitigation starting the second week of January.
- Market prices remain high, hovering around $4,800-$5,000/FEU. The earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year this year, combined with the short period between Christmas and Lunar New Year, has significantly narrowed the production and transportation window. Consequently, the expected pre-Lunar-New-Year shipment rush has not been observed, and is unlikely to occur before Lunar New Year.
- Equipment: No significant equipment issues have been reported at origin. But with Lunar New Year around the corner, we will start to see pressure on equipment and truckers—especially in light of potential new tariffs.
- Space: Amid the pre-Lunar-New-Year rush, space remains constrained. However,
- there are some strings with open space, especially to the West Coast.
- Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) remain, as there have been no changes yet since the January 1 announcement.
At a Glance
Air Freight
- Surge in EMEA outbound rates
- APAC outbound tonnage up 6% QoQ & 11% YoY
- CY2024 global air cargo tonnage up 10.8%
Ocean Freight
- 2025 Ocean GRI effective January 1
- Market prices remain high
- No significant equipment issues causing delays
- Capacity remains overall constrained
- Specific lanes to US West Coast remain fairly open
- Peak Season Surcharges remain in effect
2025 Outlook
- Capacity constraints on outbound air cargo routes from Asia, especially China, will persist in 2025 as demand surpasses supply.
- Airlines have delayed retiring freighters to address e-commerce growth in the US and Europe, but aging fleets and production delays at Boeing and Airbus hinder new capacity, limiting relief for the market.
- Ongoing political instability and rising tariffs, particularly between the US, China, and Russia, will disrupt trade flows. Companies must adapt by reevaluating sourcing and logistics strategies to mitigate these risks, especially with President elect Trump expected to adopt a protectionist trade policy.
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February 2025 Global Freight Update
By
Christian Goehring
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February 10, 2025
Air cargo demand worldwide remained robust towards the end of 2024, primarily driven by carriers in the APAC and AMER regions, with e-commerce playing a significant role in this growth.